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at the top of the show we ask why are you awake. producer got one from jorry who writes, it's not way too early in the virgin islands. just walked the beach with a full moon with debbie and joyce. >> so many things i could say there. i would just say i'm glad you watch the show, watch "morning joe" and then maybe go back and enjoy. i'm a little jealous. "morning joe" starts right now. ♪ shake down 1979 this is very improbable. i understand, mr. president, this was your idea. why did you want to do this, together, a joint interview? >> well, the main thing is i just wanted to have a chance to

publicly say thank you because i think hillary will go down as one of the finest secretaries of states we've had. it has been a great collaboration over the last four years. >> there's no political tea leaves to be read here? >> we don't have any tea. we've got some water here, the best i can tell. you know, this has been just the most extraordinary honor. >> all right. good morning. it's monday, january 28th. welcome to "morning joe." >> i'm going to say -- >> what? >> -- and maybe i'm just a jerk. let's start there. >> no. what? >> we'll just admit it. willie asked me if i would go over and do a sit-down on "60 minutes" before he goes over to the "today" show. i said, screw you. you want to do it? that's fine. >> i just want to thank you. >> for the honor of serving alongside you. >> okay. with us on set, we have the former governor of pennsylvania and nbc news political analyst, ed rendell. the president of the council on foreign relations, richard haass. and in washington, nbc chief

foreign affairs correspondent and host of "andrea mitchell reports," andrea mitchell. >> well, la ti da. >> let's hear more of this interview. >> what do you think, ed rendell? we want to know what this is about. barack obama, he wouldn't -- i don't know that he'd go on "60 minutes" with anybody. >> right. in a rare joint interview on cbs's "60 minutes," president obama sat alongside his departing secretary of state hillary clinton, a one-time political rival who he now describes as one of his closest advisers. secretary clinton, of course, is stepping down from her post, fueling -- you'd think you're on steroids and not me, seriously. just stop. >> are you juicing? >> she is. >> i had a huge allergic reaction to something. >> we don't want to hear about your rashes, so roll the clip. go. >> what's the -- i have to ask you, what's the date of expiration on this endorsement? >> oh, steve, you know -- i

know -- >> i have to ask that question. i mean, come on. i mean, you're sitting here together. everybody in town is talking about it already. and it's taking place. >> you know, steve, i've got to tell you. you guys in the press are incorrigible. i was literally inaugurated four days ago. >> right. >> and you're talking about elections four years from now. >> yeah. and i, as you know, steve, i am still secretary of state, so i'm out of politics, and i'm forbidden from even hearing these questions. >> boy. you know, they have -- if we ever decide to leave this hallowed ground, i think they have the chemistry together to maybe host "morning joe." >> all right. >> much the same chemistry. >> much the same chemistry. look at that. just crackling. come on, mika, that's force. >> that was forced, and that's what i was sort of uncomfortable

with. it's sort of obvious. but i guess -- you know, i like them both very much. but is he doing this with everyone else? >> bing crosby and bob hope, they are not. i mean, come on. >> well, they didn't -- >> other people leaving the administration? >> this is more -- this is -- what's going on here, willie? >> they didn't break any new foreign policy ground, that was clear, in terms of the questioning. so then you're left to wonder what was going on there? what was the idea? although it was remarkable to see the two of them sitting together if you thought about where we were five years ago and them saying shame on you and you're likeable enough. >> you're a racist. >> andrea mitchell, am i being too cynical this morning? because these are two people i respect a great deal. >> a great deal. >> well, it was sort of -- as you're pointing out, it was really unusual to see them together. and to see the relationship that they have developed, i think that they have developed a close relationship. i was really intrigued by when he -- when steve kroft asked

about what about the staffs, and they acknowledged it took longer for their staffs to get over the hurt and anger after the campaign, and i would say still hasn't happened, exactly. because she has been the most celebrated secretary of state and certainly the most high-profile member of the cabinet. and gets along very well with the president. but arguably, she never really broke through the barrier of that national security staff and the white house staff, the political advisers. and then when he asked about the spouses, the acknowledgment that it took their spouses a lot longer to heal as well. >> ed, what was that about? >> it's hard to figure. >> and biden's going out -- >> killing it. >> week in, week out, joe biden is going out, making the deals that have got to be done. he's the mvp of the past six months. this is really sticking it to a guy that has been saying since 2009 he wants to run for president. >> it's hard to figure, if this was at the end of the

administration, maybe it makes sense. but the president's going to need joe biden and need him all out for the next four years, no question. >> so what's going on? by the way, you love hillary. you love joe. we all do. >> we all do. >> this doesn't make any sense. >> i think down the road -- first of all, i do think that there's something about just saying, look, this was a great collaboration. we want to put an exclamation point on a great collaboration team of rivals. look, hillary's more popular than the president right now. the president might have had as much to gain on that as hillary did, number one. number two, i think that the president, down the road, could be the peacemaker, the person who comes in and says to joe, joe, you can't stand in the way of history. look, i love joe biden. i think he's earned a shot at it. but if hillary wants to run, how do you stand in the way of history? >> yeah. >> okay. well, on foreign policy, i'm just wondering if there was any

major news broken? i didn't think so. making sure i didn't miss anything. would have covered up the awkward fact that they're setting her up for, you know, a presidential rain. if they broke some news. >> normally i go to willie geist. >> steve kroft asked about benghazi, but i'm not sure we got any new information. >> the president defended himself from critics who say the u.s. has not been aggressive enough in using american power abroad. >> well, one more gadhafi probably does not agree with that assessment, or at least if he was around he wouldn't agree with that assessment. when it comes to egypt, had it not been for the leadership we showed, you might have seen a different outcome there. but also understanding that we do nobody a service when we leap before we look. syria is a classic example of where our involvement, we want to make sure that not only does it enhance u.s. security but also that it is doing right by the people of syria and

neighbors like israel that are going to be profoundly affected by it. and so it's true sometimes that we don't just shoot from the hip. >> so richard haass, is this payback for, let's say, bill clinton doing such a great job for the obama campaign? >> we're speculating. >> people are still going back and saying the most important speech of that campaign was the one given by bill clinton, without question. that was the turning point for the -- i mean, i say turning point, those guys were pounding republicans who they were targeting from the very beginning, but that was really when america just, i think, turned. bill clinton captured the moment and defended the presidency. >> well, it's clear that bill clinton's support for the president helped his re-election both at the convention and beyond the convention. you're asking me to speculate on something i simply don't know anything about. >> well, that's what we do here. >> sorry. >> how long you been coming here? >> secretary of state leaving

office, the president does a joint interview? >> i've never seen it before. the secretary of speech is speaking thursday, giving her final speech at the council on foreign relations, a chance for her to basically make the case for her foreign policy legacy and try to talk about the foreign policy of the obama presidency. >> yeah. you know, ed -- >> and andrea. >> i want to get to andrea in one second. you look at the pictures of barack obama, first african-american president, still, you know, if you had said ten years ago, it would still be shocking. you have hillary clinton sitting next to him. odds-on favorite to be the first female president. you look at those two figures, you look at their approval ratings, barack obama, building the '70s, hillary's approval rating up in the 60s. and then you look at where i was this weekend, "the national review" had a great weekend

where they were talking about the future of conservatism. i say it was because it was so constructive. but i'll tell what you, if the economy keeps getting better over the next three years, you've got hillary linton rclin running three years from now, we republicans have such a major headwind in our face for the next three years. it's going to be tough. >> yeah, there's no question. but there's so many variables. >> go ahead. >> no, so many variables that could happen in the next 3 1/2 years. >> yeah. ed sees you making a motion, he stops. >> i was trying to get richard haass in on this. >> she wants some more 'roids. >> andrea, i'm sorry, we cut you off. >> no, there are other points about the politics of it. joe biden is going to be at the white house, in closed meetings with the president today and has had a very high-profile role. clearly, this is the interview that he would have wanted to see. and when you talk to a lot of leading democrats who were in town this weekend, they were saying that joe biden has everything going for him except

that hillary clinton is a woman and is a celebrity and has the best popularity. and she has the virtue, after eight years then of barack obama and the obama administration, of being seen as somewhat of an outsider. and so it's a better way to go up against a republican, you know, after eight years of the obama administration is to have the first woman. that's the logical event that she basically would clear the field, even among the great friends and admirers of joe biden who i think has been the most effective vice president we've seen. the other small foreign policy point, not so small, the president was saying, ask moammar gadhafi and we wouldn't have what we had against mubarak. look at the headlines overnight. look at the streets of egypt, all over egypt today, egypt is hardly a success story that they should be pointing to. >> that's exactly right. in baseball, we're in the first or second inning of the middle east. this literally could be decades of turbulence.

we've already seen the relationship between libya and mali and egypt, there's yet to be anything remotely like the consolidation of a democratic political order. so i think we have civil war in syria, we have unrest in jordan and bahrain. who knows if saudi arabia will be able to last the moment. what we used to call a peace process is totally stopped. so i think the administration has to be wary and just careful about pointing to the middle east. yes, consequential things are happening there. history is in the making. we just don't know if at the end of the day things are going to be better or worse. so far i would make the argument that things are objectively worse. that's not to blame the administration. it's simply to say large forces are under way, and it's hard to argue necessarily that we all come out better for it. >> richard, president obama said last night in that "60 minutes" interview that hillary clinton will go down as one of the great secretaries of state in american history. obviously he has an interest in saying that. but what's your assessment of her four-year run? >> again, she'll be speaking thursday to make the case for it. it's hard to hard to know how to

judge a secretary of state. one of the most important things a secretary does is provide private counsel to the president. one of the principal voices around the president. it's hard to know therefore what's the difference between the bvm foreign policy and what hillary clinton was advocating for? very tough to make that judgment. i would say, though, you'll have to judge it on the basis of the middle east. the end of the wars in iraq and afghanistan, what you think about that. and the big thing also, the greater u.s. emphasis on asia. the so-called pivot to asia. my guess is when historians look at the obama years, what they're going to talk about is the slight dialing down in the middle east and the dialing up in the asia-pacific. my guess is that's going to be seen as the most significant part of what the administration did. >> since there wasn't any kind of real foreign policy news out of the interview with the president and secretary of state last night, i'm going to ask you about some leaders from the past who spoke over the weekend at the -- my friend adrienne spent a picture of my dad with george schulz and then kissinger made a speech as well that you were at.

did anything interesting come out of that? >> each year the alfalfa society which basically exists for the purpose of having this dinner once a year, nominates someone to be the candidate for president. and this year it was henry kissinger who gave, i thought, a very funny, self-deprecating speech. there's nothing that remotely looks like policy in going out in the room. >> and a lot of heavy drinking. >> oh, is that what was going on? okay. >> the president was not there. valerie jarrett was there. >> looking at these pictures of your parents, there obviously was a lot of drinking going on. >> oh, dear. >> one of the things i'd like to say about hillary clinton, though, i think traditional secretary of state, i think richard's right, we have to see what happens down the road. she carved out two new grounds for secretary of state. number one, the work she did on behalf of u.s. corporations which had previously been done

by commerce secretary, but she took that to heart and has credited to a lot of corporations for turning their economic fate around abroad. and secondly, what she did in talking to groups going into a country and holding town meetings, the good will that she produced for the united states, i think it's hard to calculate and hard to qualify. i think in those two regards, she was pretty extraordinary. >> and the women's agenda, you're going to have the first ambassador for women going over to georgetown and creating an institute there of foreign policy regarding women. when we talk about pulling out of afghanistan, for instance, a lot of people are really concerned that it will end up being as it was when the taliban were in charge. and so the advancement of women's rights and human rights, i'm going to be interviewing secretary clinton tomorrow at the state department. so maybe we can pursue some of those questions. >> that will be amazing. >> i'll tell you, though, we're going to have to, though, wait until '16 to judge how she did

because everybody was talking about benghazi. that's just a small, small part of the story. you look what's happening in egypt right now, the chaos in ee kwi egypt, the chaos in syria, possibly coming to jordan. you don't judge the secretary of state today. you judge her in 2016. things may be a lot better there -- >> the book's still open. >> the book is open. and right now it certainly looks like a mixed bag. >> well, another page is turning. after three years, sarah palin and fox news are parting ways. the former vice presidential candidate last appeared on the network on december 19th. and now will no longer be a paid contributor. "the national journal" takes a look at her tenure as a fox news analyst in a piece entitled "sarah palin and the end of an era" which reads, in part, "once the face of an energetic and politically potent tea party

movement, palin is leaving fox at a time when polls show the tea party at an all-time low in both membership and favorability, her departure also coincides with calls by some leading republicans for their party to stop saying things that erode the gop brand and turn off voters in droves. this is the woman who, last fall, accused obama of shuck and jive in his statements on the killings of u.s. diplomatic personnel in benghazi, a racist term dating from slavery days. the problem for republicans is that democrats nominated and elected a black president -- twice now -- while they are still trying to fight perceptions they are hostile to minorities and the policies they support. that makes comments like palin's particularly harmful. the shuck-and-jive incident was one of many signs that palin has not adapted to a changing political environment." >> first of all, on that comment, it is deeply offensive. democrats did the same thing in 2008. i believe andrew cuomo may have said the same thing in 2008, and

he was -- >> got a pass. >> yeah. he was not hammered as much. >> he got hammered for that? i read that someone got a pass for it. >> some have gotten a pass. anyway, i think cuomo got hammered pretty hard. but this is -- i saw, richard haass, mr. i'm not going to speculate on anything that's not in front of my nose, you know, this is important. this is an important story because the guy who has been the de facto leader of the republican party over the past four years since george w. bush left town is roger els. he's run the party, he's run the conservative movement. when roger els decides she's not worth the trouble, then that means that conservatism's moving in a new direction. i talked about what happened this weekend at "the national review" institute's talk. i was really surprised. really surprised by what i heard. and heartened, whether it was

bill kristol or john hatoritz. also scott walker who is doing really well up in wisconsin. and all the republicans got up there, and they were saying the same thing. we've got to stop being the stupid party. we've been saying here for six months, we have got to -- and john, i thought, had one of the best points, that we have stifled debate. the conservative movement has stifled debate. and if you go out and you dare to stand out in a crowd, whether it's on taxes or regulations or in the past on immigration, you were completely shunned from the party. finally there's an understanding we've got to grow the party. what we've been saying for quite frankly for years and getting attacked, we want colin powell on our side. we want moderate republicans on our side. if we're going to be the majority party again, we've got to spend the party. >> are you saying they're pushing her out of the spotlight as part of making the stupid

party less stupid? >> what i'm saying is that sarah palin represented a time and place in american politics. and not 2008 so much as 2010. and that time is passing us very quickly. and party leaders are finally understanding that. you know, roger els, i brought up richard haass, roger els before. roger els saw this coming well before the 2012 election. he had realized what had gone wrong. not only at his network but also in the conservative movement of the republican party. that's why he was running out and talking to chris christie saying, get in this race. you can save this party. and els was right. >> but there's a difference between stopping the stupid party and to start being the smart party. we'll see what happens on gun control, on the debt. the most interesting positive news is immigration. the fact that you now have republicans rallying around comprehensive immigration reform. not just focus ing on the security issue but opening up our borders to people who have all sorts of education and

skills and providing a pathway to citizenship for the 11 million people. that, to me, is one of the first signs that substantively the republican party is taking to heart what you're talking about. >> it's also, though, it's the theatrics of it all, and sarah palin was more theatrics than anything else. doing stupid things and saying stupid things politically, going on facebook after gabby giffords was shot, talking about blood libel, one mistake after another. >> it wasn't just that one line. >> there were, willie geist, so many republicans that really did believe -- and i told them they were dead wrong -- they really believed the benghazi hearings, and i heard this when they were getting sworn in, saying benghazi is going to be the issue where we're really going to get the country to turn on barack obama and hillary clinton. hillary clinton killed them. and once again, a self-inflicted wound. you had a senator going out saying oh, she was just faking

her tears. >> oh, my god. >> and we do that time and time and time again. it's not just policy. it's how we play the game. and we have been clumsy and stupid for too long now. >> sarah palin represented something to a lot of people. she was a proxy, i feel like, for conservatives, for republicans to fight the media, to fight democrats, to fight president obama in 2008. she was a way for many of them to say, look how they're treating her. that's the way we've all been treated for all these years. and she was a great moment for them to fight back. now the question is, when you turn the page from her and she does feel like a relic from a different time, where do you go? what's the next move? can they make the leap to chris christie? is he too moderate, as people said four years ago or a couple years ago, even? we'll see. i mean, we'll see if they're willing to go that direction. if mitt romney in many ways and john mccain in many ways was too moderate for some people during that campaign, will they now change course and swing toward the middle? >> you know, mika, sarah palin

represented, as willie said, really she represented republican resentment. now, so did ronald reagan. >> right. >> but ronald reagan knew how to follow through on that. i always, when i saw those "w" stickers especially in the northeast back in 2004, i died laughing and i love it had because a "w" sticker on the back of your car in the northeast was like sticking your middle finger up to elites. east coast -- trust me, as a republican, i can tell you. i would look at them, and i would die laughing. it was just great. and it was that sort of republican resentment. but you know what? he knew how to close the deal. bush knew how to close the deal. reagan knew how to close the deal. republican resent -- it's just like they say in washington if you're paranoid, you know, what is the saying? just because you're paranoid doesn't mean everybody isn't out to get you. well, we republicans have a reason to resent how we've been looked down upon by east coast

elites for about 50 years now. and so sometimes you have candidates that can -- that can really plug into that resentment and close the deal. sarah palin could never do it. there never was the follow-through, and she just didn't have the discipline to become the transitional transformational candidate that she had the possibility of being on that speech in 2008. >> i think you just can't stand for resentment. you have to stand for something else. >> if we can only be as pure in this category as democrats who never use class warfare, never use resentment and never use rage. >> that's not what you said. you can't ever stand for it alone. or saying the same thing, we're agreeing right now. >> i think you're on steroids. >> just because i'm a woman doesn't mean i can say something critical of sarah palin, too. i'll survive. coming up, paul krugman, republican congresswoman marsha

blackburn and chris hughes. up next, mike allen with the top stories in the "politico playbook." but first, here's bill karins with a check on the forecast. bill. >> good monday morning, mika. this is the start of an active week. we have a messy scenario in the northeast at the peak of rush hour. snow and sleet reported through pennsylvania, maryland, d.c. is now over to rain. baltimore to philadelphia, that's probably going to be the worst on i-95 and anywhere here in eastern pa to the border of jersey, right over the next hour or two is when the snow will start, then change over to sleet and eventually freezing rain. a lot of freezing rain around hagerstown. eventually this is all heading up into new england during the day. it's plenty cold enough from hartford to albany to boston, you'll get an inch or two of snow and then freezing rain and sleet on top of it. let me turn your attention, it is 60 degrees right now in st. louis. 45 in chicago. we have this wild swing of weather taking place. we had the winter weather yesterday in chicago and st. louis. but now we're going to worry about thunderstorms. tomorrow, a severe weather

outbreak, the first of this year, possibly tornadoes from the dallas area to little rock down to shreveport. that's the greatest area of concern. even as far north as indianapolis, we could see strong thunderstorms at the end of january. and then this sweeps all the way through the south as we go into wednesday. we're going to have to watch this. we're going to have the snow and the sleet this morning in new england. and then our focus turns to our severe weather threat at the end of january. a very crazy week. and then after that a huge blast of cold air as we head towards next weekend. you're watching "morning joe." washington, d.c., careful on the roads outside the big city. we're brewed by starbucks. abby needs everything to throw a big party for the big game. let's see if walmart's low price guarantee can make you the mvp of savings. look at that price. wow! walmart lowers thousands of prices every week. if you find a lower advertised price, they'll match it at the register. no way! yeah! touchdown!

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29 past the hour. time now to take a look at the "morning papers." "usa today." more than 230 people were killed when a fire broke out at a

crowded nightclub in a college town in the southern part of brazil. witnesses say a band's pyrotechnics triggered the inferno. the victims were trampled, many of them as panicked crowds rushed through the door. the entrance, however, was apparently closed off after security guards thought there was a fistfight and customers were skipping out on their bar tabs. >> oh, my god! >> this is a nightmare. the fire had drawn comparisons to the pyrotechnics disaster in rhode island that killed 100 people in 2003. richard haass. >> there's been a sort of world love affair with brazil the last few years, yes, there's things that are really positive, but this is also a reminder how these countries, when they develop, there's big parts that don't and the unevenness of it all. we'll see more with the world cup and olympics. in some ways, it's a country that's had uneven modernization, and this is an example. >> it's terrible. in "the washington post," the number of people working on s

cybersecurity for the pentagon is going to increase fivefold. the department of defense's cyber command which mainly focuses on kpourt systems is going to increase to nearly 5,000 troops and civilians. the retooled program will include combat mission forces who may help military commanders by disabling an encommand and control system before a military attack. tell us about it, richard. >> both cyber defense and cyber offense. you speak to anyone in the military in the intelligence community, this is the first thing they talk about. it's an area of great advantage for us. look at the way we use computer viruses. we can organize information in ways that others can't. on the other hand, everything we do as a society, everything we do as a military is now based upon cyber. so we're both the best but also the most vulnerable ultimately. so the idea that we're throwing enormous resources at this, this is no coincidence. it's not a one-time thing. this is now the future. from our parade of papers, "the kansas city star." a new study indicates as our brains get older, it may interfere with the quality of

sleep we get at night. really? that, in turn, impacts -- >> who sleeps at night in. >> our ability to store memories long term. oh. okay. >> that explains it. >> the study published in "nature neuroscience" suggests that improving sleep is one way to improve memory decline in adults. >> who sleeps? ed, do you sleep? >> not much. >> how many hours a night? >> 3 1/2, 4. >> that's what i do. >> that's about it, 3 1/4, 4. >> richard, still at 6 hours? >> six hours. >> willie, nine or ten. >> he needs his sleep. >> i strive for five. but don't always make it there. >> strive for five. >> it's so funny. people always warn me, when you get older, you don't sleep. you can't sleep much anymore. you know, i worried about it, but it's actually pretty good. you get a lot of stuff done. if i can get four, five hours of sleep -- >> you can sustain that, though, day upon day? >> for the most part. maybe get six on the -- i'll

tell you what i can't do. i can't stay in bed seven hours. i just can't. if i'm in bed seven hours, i'm groggy. five, six hours. six hours is a great night. >> joe, i can't stay in bed for seven hours for another reason. >> why is that? >> you'll learn in about ten years. >> tmi. >> oh, my gosh. that's funny. should we go to "politico"? >> ed, do you need to go? >> i'm fine. >> all right, we'll go to "politico." >> for some reason i can make it through three hours here. >> wow! >> that was funny. >> was it? >> it was, huh? okay. >> okay. >> we'll have some new sponsors. >> willie geist. >> let's go to "politico." >> we need joe theismann. >> i never knew what he was talking about. now i get it. >> you know who doesn't sleep is mike allen. >> never. >> 2:00 in the morning, he's on the show. >> and he looks great. >> handsome son of a gun.

mike allen, chief white house correspondent of "politico," good morning. >> good morning. i actually go for the richard haass six. jim vandehei says six hours is the key to being healthy and wise. >> i tried to crunch the numbers on it, though, because the "playbook" goes out at 6:00 on a saturday morning which means you've been up since 3:00 working on it. so when do you sleep? do you go to bed at 6:00 at night? i don't believe you. >> don't ask too many questions. >> there's going to be a press conference up on capitol hill this morning. a so-called group of eight senators, very high-profile senators, going to unveil a bipartisan immigration reform, at least the outlines of some kind of a plan. take us through it a little bit. >> yeah, willie, this is going to be immigration week, certainly immigration month, maybe immigration year because as joe suggested at "national review" this weekend, i popped in there yesterday with the "national review" institute here in washington. more and more republicans are open to doing something on

immigration. so today, these senators, these include some of the biggest players on the democratic side. senator schumer, senator durbin, on the republican side, senator mccain, marco rubio, coming out with a plain before the president unveils his. tomorrow the president is going to jet to las vegas to unveil his immigration plan. these senators putting out a marker. here are the three big points of this plan. and this is going to be the biggest debate on immigration in six years since back in 2007 when president bush's plan was deeted. he defeated. here are the three big paths. it will provide a path to legal citizenship for the people in the country illegally. that's dependent on increasing border security before that happened and some other procedural safeguards. and three, there's going to be a little faster path to citizenship for seasonal agricultural workers and for young people who are brought to

the country illegally. so that's the nod to the dream act that's so popular on the left. >> andrea, what chances do a major plan like this have of getting through congress? >> i think better than ever. and the real sadness here is that john mccain, lindsey graham and others are totally behind this now. if they had been able to do this in 2007 and had not run away from george w. bush, they could have achieved this then, and perhaps the republican party's trajectory would be different. >> andrea, a big fact, and john mccain didn't allude to it, he said it flat out on tv yesterday. he said the election returns are what's motivating this. let's be clear about that. this isn't any revelation coming out of church. it was election returns that are motivating this. >> by the way, you've got to tip your hat to the bushes. they saw this coming, not in 2004, not in 2000. jeb was talking about this in 1997. his brother was talking about it in texas. in 1999. they talked about it nonstop,

mike allen. the bushes were warning of this back -- you know, karl rove who's, of course, vilified now all the time in most quarters. karl rove was warning about this back in '98, '99. back then they were all saying fastest demographic group, republicans get smart faster, you're going to pay, and we've paid. >> we're seeing signs now -- i'm sorry? >> i was going to say, jeb bush is very actively involved in this right now. >> motivated by the politics, this will do more to still late america's economic growth than most of the stuff we normally talk about. getting more people, ph.d.s, technology, able to stay in this country after their get their ph.d.s. this will make a big difference. >> mike. >> jeb bush on the president's side saying they need to go big. that you need to do a comprehensive plan like the one we're talking about that takes in -- not the piecemeal approach, the republicans have talked about. marco rubio, just in the last week, really moving the debate on this, convincing republican

talk show hosts, other influential conservatives that what we have now is amnesty, that there need to be changes. change on this just in the last couple weeks is astonish iing. joe, i know you heard some of that this weekend at "national preon you review." >> mike allen, thanks so much. we'll talk to you. >> have a good week. coming up, tiger woods looking like the tiger of old, taking a six-shot lead at torrey pines. highlights from his dominant weekend ahead in sportses. [ man ] i've been out there most of my life. you name it...i've hooked it. but there's one... one that's always eluded me. thought i had it in the blizzard of '93. ha! never even came close. sometimes, i actually think it's mocking me.

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all right. time for sports at 6:41 here in new york. tiger woods, 11 holes away from the eighth career tournament win at torrey pines for him. tiger leads the field by six at the farmers insurance open. he sank five birdies in the third round. three more in the first seven holes of the final round. it's going to be a monday finish. he's at 17 under for the tournament, has a chance to win his first tour event since the at&t national last july. play was suspended on saturday because of heavy fog. so the third part of the -- third part of the final round were played yesterday. tiger will finish off today. play resumes at 2:10 eastern.

he is 17 under with a six-shot lead. "snl" helped baltimore ravens linebacker ray lewis ring in his upcoming retirement with a special tribute on "weekend update." >> a lot of us saw you cry last week during the national anthem. >> it's just -- i've never heard that song before. >> yeah, you've been playing football your whole life. >> i know, but i always wear earplugs during the games to block out the sound of my own screams. i'm 37 years old. i've got a torn tricep. i can't get this paint off my face. if we win the super bowl -- ooh -- i'm going to go to the 50 yard line of the superdome, kneel down, and then i'm going to ascend into heaven. i'm going through the roof, seth! >> super bowl coming up on sunday. by the way, richard haass, i know you were worried about this. nfc 63, afc 35 in the pro bowl

last night. >> flag football. >> always take the over. >> the last pro bowl. >> that's all i do. >> yeah. >> i've got a command center at home. >> i know. really impressive with the monitors. >> it's unbelievable. >> headset. >> eating chee-tos. >> tweet deck. >> you had the tweet of the weekend. >> betting on the pro bowl? >> the guy that bets on the pro bowl, what do you say, has reached the bottom? >> i say the long road to rock bottom ends at wagering on the pro bowl. >> the odds, which you knew. >> afc given a point and a half. >> all right. what's up next? >> actually, that's the next to last. the final step is the north/south. >> oh, the blue gray. >> do they still have that? >> college all-star games. mika's must-read opinion page is next.

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time now for our "must-read opinion pages" at 47 past the hour. joe writes in "politico" this. "the president's missed chance. obama dismissed concerns about the national debt during his inaugural address in a few throw-away lines, and instead used the speech to address social issues that harry reid's democratic senate won't touch. this political negligence suggests that obama has chosen to ignore negative budget projections, credit downgrades, falling revenues and perpetual increases in mandatory spending. instead, the president is teeing up partisan legislative battles with republicans in hopes of -- but as a measurement of the president's seriousness, his second inaugural address can only be seen as a grand failure

that missed yet another historic opportunity to call americans together in the name of shared sacrifice. and richard haass, there is another opportunity, which would be the state of the union which i'm sort of banking on. >> traditionally inaugurals are the poetry, and then the state of the union becomes the prose. and the president did not prepare for educate the american people about some of the tough decisions to come, particularly on medicare and medicaid. so the real question going forward for the state of the union is whether he essentially addresses that. and whether he -- because we've still got more than, i think, more than $2 trillion in serious cuts to be made to entitlements over the next decade. and we've done a lot of the tax. we really can't get there through further tax increases or through discretionary spending. it's got to be through entitlements which means the health care sector. if we don't get serious about it, we are going to make ourselves extraordinarily vulnerable, and the president didn't do it so far. one hopes he does it in the state of the union. >> ed, republicans have had a terrible record over the past decade when it comes to

spending, when it comes to deficits, when it comes to debt. george w. bush added $6 trillion in debt, the president, $6 trillion over one term. but democrats are going to have to look at medicare and medicaid. this just can't -- you can't tax your way to solvency, can you, with these programs? >> you can't. i mean, we have made over $1 trillion in cuts at the last continuing resolution. that was a good thing. we've raised revenues, $600 billion in revenue, that was a positive step. we've got, joe, at least $2.5 trillion to go. and i think richard's right. i'd say it's close to $1.5 trillion that we need to do in cuts. i think we do need to do another $500 trillion in revenue. you can't do it out of domestic spending any did more. we've cut domestic spending almost to the bone. it has to come from entitlements. no ifs, ands or buts. >> i say easy, not for the

people who get cut, it's discretionary domestic spending. where not only republicans but now democrats are saying you know, we don't want to touch medicare and medicaid, middle-class entitlements over the next generation, so we're going to cut in the short term which, of course, will harm the economy. >> right. >> but they won't take care of the long-term debt. so they go to the 10%, 11%, 12% of the budget. >> but it's hard to have a conversation with those that deny problem with entitlements. there are very smart people in the public space -- >> what about martin o'malley? >> governor o'malley. >> talking about the super bowl but not medicare. >> they say that's not a problem. there are other ways to cut, waste, fraud and abuse. there's way to dance around it. >> where's that line? >> they sound like republicans, andrea, waste, fraud abuse and we would always walk around the floor and somebody would cynically say, let's just sell the spectrum again. we'll sell it to somebody else. >> that's just fiction. you know, the president -- i'm told that the president is still

open to what he put out there initially about raising the retirement age, the other things that were completely rejected by his base. we'll see what happens, but that he is willing to negotiate -- knows he has to negotiate and hasn't taken any of that back, and i think he said that in his interview with "the new republic." >> you're right, but i think the republicans have to show courage, too. when the president floated change cpi, senate republicans ran away from that like it was poison. instead of -- >> did they run away from that? >> they ran away from it. you didn't hear a word -- in fact, mcconnell said change cpi is off the table before the fiscal cliff. so it's going to take courage on both sides. >> i thought harry reid did. but it doesn't matter. >> mcconnell also. >> they've all been cowards, no doubt about it. >> absolutely. >> you know what's really frustrating? whenever you talk about our long-term debt problems and medicare, medicaid, the things that simpson-bowles have been warning us about, people go you know what? you can't slash and burn and you can't make those cuts right now.

we're not talking about right now. >> right. >> we're not talking about austerity. we're not talking about doing what great britain's doing. we're talking about taking care of a generational problem that's going to kill us in 10, 15, 20 years. we've got to start planning now, mika. as you say, even when on 'roids or off 'roids. do you feel like you could lift this table? do you feel like paul krugman, if the bat breaks, there are going to be problems? >> i can pick you both up. yeah. by the way, i can pick you up. >> congratulations on the tour de france. >> you were amazinamazing. >> you were. seriously, the way you went up those mountains, i had no judged. >> the yellow jersey is really attractive. >> how does she do it? i don't know. you know, you can find our most-read op-eds on mojomsnbc.com. we also have all of mika's prescriptions.

>> i have a blog, my first post is part of a new series called "women of value," profiling women in the white house. also check out nick christoph's piece in "the new york times." it's really, really good. andrea, thank you so much. >> thank you. still ahead, paul krugman and congresswoman marsha blackburn. we're back in a moment. twins. i didn't see them coming. i have obligations. cute obligations, but obligations. i need to rethink the core of my portfolio. what i really need is sleep. introducing the ishares core, building blocks for the heart of your portfolio. find out why 9 out of 10 large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. ishares by blackrock. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus which includes

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glad we have richard haass here this morning. >> exactly. >> i want to know what it means. what does it mean? >> that's what we do here. >> this is barack obama's sputnik moment. we know how eisenhower responded to questions. how will the president respond in >> breaking news. breaking. eye rairanian state tv says cou has successfully sent monkeys into space. >> wow! >> january 28th, 2013, we sent our monkey in june of 1949. >> you had that right off the top of your head. >> there it is. richard. >> the monkey gap. >> what does it mean? >> well, to answer that question, i can't even do a segue there, the guy has won, like, the nobel prize. >> yes, he has. >> we're not going to ask him about iranian monkeys. >> pulitzer prize-winning columnist for "the new york times," professor paul krugman joins us on set.

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[ male announcer ] just like you, business pro. just like you. go national. go like a pro. look, if we had a clinton presidency, if we had erskine bowles, chief staff of the white house, or president of the united states, i think we would have fixed this fiscal mess by now. that's not the presidency we're dealing with right now. i decided not to comment between the election and the inauguration because i wanted to see what kind of presidents we were looking at here.

what kind of path and trajectory he was putting his administration on. and all of the statements and all of the comments lead me to believe that he's thinking more of a political conquest than political compromise. and that's my concern. >> interesting. welcome back to "morning joe." a live look at the white house as the sun has yet to come up over washington. time to wake up, everyone. with us still, former governor ed rendell and richard haass. and joining the set, columnist for "the new york times" and nobel prize-winning economist, paul krugman. paul's book, "end this depression now!" is now out in paperback. it did well here, apparently. >> you no he what they say about the nobel prize winner? >> what? >> you know, jerry lewis, very big in france. paul krugman, spain. madrid! >> he's on the sides of buses. >> on the sides of buses in madrid. >> what's going on there? >> 25% unemployment, as you know. 55% youth unemployment. >> yeah, can you explain that? because you said in the past, your books did much better in

the u.s. than europe. >> so interesting. >> but in europe and japan right now -- >> part of the answer is we messed up pretty badly on economic policy. they messed up even worse in europe. so we have at least had -- we haven't had the kind of fiscal stimulus. we haven't had the kind of pro-employment policies i want here, but we haven't had the kind of destructive austerity policies that they've had in europe. so i think what i say has got a lot of resonance there because they've seen what happens when people energetically do the opposite of what i say you should be doing and you see what happens. >> take us through europe. give us a tour of europe by numbers, spain, great britain, france. >> austerity. >> great britain -- britain is in a way the most interesting because in a lot of ways britain could be like us. it's a country with its own currency, borrows on its own currency, a lot of freedom of action, able to borrow at very low interest rates. but you had this government come in in 2010 which believed that austerity was the way to go. lots of people here, david

broder urged obama to do a cameron. we've got to do some of what the brits are doing and have harsh austerity right away because that will improve confidence. and don't listen to those economists who say it will send them back into it sent them back into recession. britain is, in fact, seeing that anti-keynesian policies don't work. and we didn't do the same thing. and so we're -- we have a recovery. it's not as strong as i'd like, but we have a real recovery here. the rest of europe, my god. i mean, they have a structural -- sorry -- economist jargon. they had a problem which is they have one currency without one goth, and that's a pretty deadly combination. and that's led to the situation of incredibly harsh austerity in ireland, greece, spain. and there you have depression-level rates of unemployment. it's catastrophic. financial markets have stabilized. but that's all. >> yeah. >> okay. so given all these differences between the different countries and societies within europe and the different problems they're facing, what can we learn from

europe that truly applies, that transfers to our situation? >> well, the main thing we learn is that slashing spending, when you still have depressed economy, is really destructive. it's probably even counterproductive even in purely fiscal terms because it damages your economy, damages future tax receipts. spain doesn't have a choice. spain doesn't have its own currency. but we do have a choice. and so we should not be doing that. we should be doing -- we should be sustaining government spending until we have a stronger economic recovery. >> when is that, though? because whenever we have an opportunity, we don't do it, do we? >> this is actually not true. people talk as if it's this faded thing. oh, we always squander surpluses. no, we don't. we actually -- we're doing fine at the end of the 1990s. then along came this guy named george bush who said we have a surplus, that's cut taxes that have two unfunded wars. that was a politicalizati decis and it wasn't an invisible force of nature that wasn't a specific

political drive. our track record for the longer term is not bad. we have actually tended to reduce our debt at least relative to gdp when the economy was strong. we tend to increase when the economy is weak, but that's what you should do. so this is not a hard call. as long as we have 4 million people who have been unemployed for more than a year, this is not a time to be worrying about reducing the budget deficit. give me something that looks more like a normal employment situation, and i'll become a deficit hawk, but not now. >> so help me out here. over the past 12 years, 10 years, 11 years, george w. bush spent us $6 trillion in debt. over the past four years, barack obama, under the obama administration, an additional $6 trillion in debt. the president extended the bush tax cuts because tax cuts are keynesian, and he believed that -- he believed that -- and they pretty much said so -- that if they didn't extend the bush tax cuts a couple of years back in 2010, that the economy would

go down. it seems like we've thrown everything but the kitchen sink at the economy. and yet one in four americans are living on food stamps. one in three americans aren't in the civilian work force. i could go through all the numbers. >> we haven't actually. if you actually take a look at the numbers, you know, about the american economy, you always have to keep in mind just how big the thing is. you say well, we had an $800 billion stimulus program. that's huge. but that was ved over -- >> $50 billion of tax cuts. >> but that was spread over three years. and over that period, the u.s. economy produced $45 trillion worth of stuff. and so when you do the ratio, we're talking about a couple of percent of gdp. it's not actually a very big thing, when you just had the worst financial collapse in three generations. so what we've actually had are policies that are not especially strong. they've actually been a lot weaker than -- a lot weaker than people who had spreadsheets were saying we really needed.

you know, this is epical. this is not something that's going to happen, hopefully, until a couple of generations from now. we should have hit this -- >> you're talking about the 2008 collapse? >> that's right. >> so you don't think we're facing what japan faced? you don't think this is -- you think this is cyclical? are we going to -- >> well, yeah, it is cyclical. there's no indication -- there's no hint there. people have looked for evidence that there's some fundamental flaw in the u.s. economy that accounts for this. and it just isn't really there. you know, of course, we'd like our workers to be better educated. we'd like lots of stuff to be better, but that was true in 2007, too. there's no sign that that accounts for this dramatic deterioration. this is just plain not enough spending. >> but i think we can begin to address our entitlement problem without putting on the brakes. if we don't, what worries me about what paul krugman and others are creming, e i recomme

sandys, future wars, bond markets that we've put ourselves in a vulnerable position. that seems to me to be a dangerous thing that you're recommending. >> we've actually seen that in practice, i can say, look, if i were -- if i could ideally, i'd say let's have a plan to reduce the budget deficit five years out, ten years out from now while at the same time doing stimulus for the economy, washington doesn't work that way. if you spend a lot of your time talking about, well, the debt and entitlements are the big problem, the message that -- actually what we need to do right now is promote jobs gets lost. and in fact, we've spent the last 2 1/2 years focused entirely on arguing about the long-term deficit, entitlements and doing nothing for employment right now. that balance has got to shift. >> we can shift it in lots of ways. one of them is spending. the other is immigration reform, free trade, change the corporate tax rates. there's lots of things to -- >> none of those things has much change. >> i want to clarify something you just said.

one of the things that's really frustrating to me when i go out and talk is i keep talking about what erskine bowles talks about, medicare, medicaid, health care costs, defense budget, long-term drivers of a long-term debt. and i say, you can do two things at the same time. you can spend -- are you -- first of all, do you agree, there is a long-term structural problem with medicare and medicaid especially over the next 20 years? >> yeah, there is, but you've got to ask the question, why is it urgent that we address that problem right now? i mean, think about -- yes, there's no question, if you take the past trends in health care spending and project them forward 20 years, there will be a problem. >> right. >> so we're worried that we might have to have cuts in benefits later on because of this problem. and a lot of proposals out there are saying because we face the threat that in the future we might have to cut benefits, what we have to do right now is have a plan to cut benefits in the future. what exactly is that solving? why exactly, if the problem is we are worried about health costs in the year 2025, why

exactly is it urgent that we do something now? because we're not talking at this point about paying down debt. we're not talking about investing. >> are you saying we don't need to -- >> we need to work on project. >> and i'm talking specifically about the main drivers of the debt, medicare, medicaid. >> where the math clearly does not add up. do you agree? >> yeah. we know something is going to happen. >> so why wouldn't that be urgent? >> health care costs. well, because it's not something that's going to hit right away. what we need to do on health care costs is find ways to deliver essential health care more cheaply. we need to find ways of controlling those costs. we can do that through a lot -- actually, a lot of things that are already in the affordable care act. we can have pilot projects on different ways of waying for health care. we can have attempts to establish more accountability in medical practice. we can try to have research into what health care treatments actually work, which we do have that. >> you and i both know that

washington, d.c., is not capable of doing that on a micro level. >> i don't know that that's true. >> in '93, '94, we saw it in 2009, 2010. >> i think we are making substantial progress. >> is that being the enemy of the good? >> no. >> because we know the storm is coming in medicare and medicaid. >> we think it. there's a lot of things we don't know. >> so erskine bowles is basically -- >> no, i mean -- >> -- >> out in left field? >> the odds are we have to do something major. health care costs growth has slowed a lot in the last few years. yogi berra predictions are difficult especially about the future. we don't really know. it's a good bet, but the question is, is that at the top of -- should that be at the top of our agenda? and look, we just saw, yesterday, larry summers said -- had an article saying we shouldn't be so obsessed about the deficit right now. but he started the thing with

two paragraphs about how, well, the deficit is a longer-term problem. "washington post" has an editorial yesterday that quotes only the part about the deficit being a problem. and ignores the rest of it. and we've just seen that even "the washington post" editorial board can't walk and chew gum at the same time. so you're expecting our political system to simultaneously talk endlessly about the long-term deficit and worry about job creation? it doesn't work that way. we need to talk about job creation right now. >> and my concern, ed rendell, is if the federal government is incapable of walking and chewing gum at the same time, taking care of long-term debt while creating jobs in the short term, how are we going to be able to tackle something as complex as overhauling the health care system so we make sure that we're an outcome-based system instead of a basically test? >> i don't think any of these things are mutually exclusive. we can do -- had stimulus been

better crafted and been bigger, we had $87 billion for infrastructure, the number one job producer of well-paying american jobs and that spurs investment. had we had four or five times that, might have had a much greater and significant boost to the economy. i think we can do those things and at the same time take care of the long term. and i think the long term is a balance of what paul says and what you say, joe. we've got to do something about entitlements because it isn't such a long term. medicare is sound because of the $716 million till 2024. >> yeah. >> so we're running out of time. and the things that paul is talking about, those things can bear fruit, but it's going to take 5, 10, 15 years. >> but understand, though, this year alone, every dime that washington received with the medicare and medicaid, defense, servicing the national debt, i guess the question, paul, is how comfortable are you -- give us your guidepost on how comfortable you are pushing the

deficit out, the long-term debt, when do even you say stop? enough? >> we still have substantial running room. for one thing, the best estimates say that we don't have anything that looks like a catastrophic debt situation even ten years out. because we've actually had substantial cuts. we just had significant revenue increase. it's not great. i'd like to see us paying down the debt but not at the cost of depressing the economy right now. and look at japan. people have been predicting fiscal doom for japan year after year. and anyone who believed that stuff has lost a lot of money. advanced countries with stable governments which i think we have. i'm not entirely sure. that borrow in their own currency have a lot of running room. it's just -- you know, on my list of things to worry about, the long-term deficit is probably number five, number six. it just doesn't belong up there. >> it seems to me that too many of the assumptions and analysises are rosy. and if you assume robust rates

of economic growth and continued low interest rates, you can say we, we can live with this situation. if interest rates go up, if growth doesn't rebound the way people want, if we have further foreign policy situations like something with iran or asia -- >> we risk further downgrades. >> we have $2 trillion that we still need to cut out of the deficit over the next ten years. if we're going to do like what simpson-bowles wanted to do. we're halfway there. unless we're there, i would suggest we leave ourselves vulnerable. >> how do interest rates rise if the economy remains depressed? there's a whole story of how this is supposed to happen. if people get worried about the u.s. inflating, even if you work that through, it's going to mean a weaker dollar which is actually a good thing. look at japan right now. this is important. japan right now, i don't have -- everybody tells me that prime minister abe is not a good guy. but he is now pursuing an aggressive policy of fiscal and monetary stimulus in a unt country with far more debt than

we do relative to its economy. there is no adverse market reaction. all of the effects have been positive so far. that's telling you that we have a long way to go. >> we don't know that. one way is interest rates could rise. the other is the bond markets. you and i -- you know, i know that one day we could wake up and people just could get very nervous about accumulation of date. >> i've worked that through and it's a hard story to tell. >> this argument doesn't make sense because simpson-bowles said we can do both. we can stretch out our debt reduction over a course of time, and at the same time do some things that will spur the economy. the original simpson-bowles, as you recall, called for increasing the gas tax. to fuel infrastructure. >> which went nowhere, right? yeah, so two guys can write a report that calls for all kinds of good stuff, and they can't even get their own commission to agree on the report, and you're saying this should be our policy? >> it makes sense. i think we should have a policy that makes sense. >> yeah, but we need to focus on what is urgent right now, which is creating jobs and getting

this economy back to full employment. >> right. but the way you do that is to build a political coalition, to do something about the long-term debt -- >> have you been in the same country i have for these past years? >> it's our only hope. otherwise throw up your hands. >> doesn't that send a positive message to the markets if we say hey, listen, here's the deal. we're going to take -- >> be responsible. >> what we have to do in the short term to get people back to work. but in the long term, we're taking care of the long-term structural debt. >> who are you going to make this deal with? look, there's lots of stuff -- if we had a government of philosopher kings, there's lots of stuff i'd be for. given the reality of our political partisan polarized thing, i want -- i want the president to be pushing for job creation. that should be his top priority. >> the only reason i'm laughing is because you're about as cynical as i am about what's going on in washington, d.c. you really don't think they're capable of doing two things at once. >> not these people. >> well, they haven't been. >> but clearly -- as much as i'd

love to see another stimulus, that's not going to happen, paul. there's more chances of -- >> at least we can fight the pushes for more spending cuts which is a big deal. >> by the way, just for people who have been watching this and are wondering what the hell we're talking about, well, the fact -- you've got -- obviously you've got the entitlement programs. they are exploding over the next 20, 30 years because it's demographics. and then you've got short term, when you talk about infrastructure, we're talking about domestic discretionary spending. takes about 11%, 12% of the budget. that's what both sides have been going to to cut over the past decade because they don't want to touch entitlement programs. that's infrastructure, education, that's the very things we need to invest in in the short term. >> so your message is we need to deal with entitlements and also don't cut infrastructure spending. my message is don't cut infrastructure spending and then maybe we can deal with entitlements. there's a very big difference in emphasis. >> wow. >> my message is we've got a coming collapse if we don't take

care of our entitlement programs. >> create some confidence. >> that's not necessarily true. >> i wish it were a long way off. >> i feel like we're talking about climate change. my god! >> deniers. >> it's a huge difference. >> it's a long way off and it may not be true? >> erskine bowles who was bill clinton's former chief of staff, he'll tell you we're ten years away on medicare and medicaid. peterson will say 20 years away. >> if we're going on this climate change, every year that we don't do something, we're putting 35 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the air. what exactly are we doing this year that will make it harder for us to deal with health care costs in the year 2025? we are not actually running up debt any faster than we should. all you're saying is that we should lock in now the health care changes that we think we will have had to make within 15 years. there's no comparable urgency. there's no -- it just doesn't work the same way. that's a really bad analogy. the budget/climate change is i think one of the more

destructive changes. >> we have got to make real cuts over the next decade. >> no, we don't dpp. >> yes, we do. >> the next decade is not a problem. we don't have to. >> based upon rosy assumptions, you're right, but what if they're wrong? you're basically willing to take enormous risk. >> won't that downgrade our rating? >> we've just had a downgrade. >> exactly. >> what happened after s&p downgraded the u.s.? our borrowing costs actually fell. if there's one thing i'm not really afraid of us in this world are the rating agencies. >> only because the euro is so weak, the chinese are where they are. we can't depend on the rest of the world being feckless forever. >> people like me have been saying for five years, don't worry about these deficit things for the time being. they're not an issue. other people have saying imminent crisis, imminent crisis. how many times do they have to be wrong and do people like me have to be right before people start to believe in us? >> you're right until the day you're wrong, and that's a bad day. >> and he's on the sides of buses in spain. there we go. >> he's huge! >> paul krugman.

>> thank you so much. >> this is fascinating. you've got to come back. it's great to have such diversity of thoughts. i'm serious. >> come back. >> spirited. >> the book is "end this depression now!" out in paperback. read it. we'll talk about it more. >> you're too early in the morning. >> you think so? >> yeah. >> why? >> the viewers may like it, but i don't. >> class doesn't start this early. >> oh, my goodness. >> we'll have you back in the 8:00 hour. next, congresswoman marsha blackburn of tennessee joins us and israel's top spies open up in a new documentary about the conflict of the palestinians. we'll talk to the director of the oscar-nominated film "the gatekeeper." you're watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks. and...done. did you just turn your ringer off so no one would interrupt us? oh no, i... just used my geico app to get a tow truck. it's gonna be 30 minutes. oh, so that means that we won't be stuck

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as they say now, mika, on rocky & bullwinkle, and now for something completely different.

>> yeah. look at this shot of washington. what an ugly day it is. time to wake up and get to work. you're going to get stuck in traffic. joining us now, republican representative from tennessee, congresswoman marsha blackburn. great to have you here. >> if you're waking up in the northeast, it is going to be a bad day. rain, snow, sleet coming in about lunchtime around here. >> yeah. >> anyway, you might want to change your flight to the early morning. >> if you're flying. yep. >> if you're flying. paul krugman, are you going to have him come to tennessee and campaign for you? >> i don't think so. i'm having richard. >> richard. richard will come down. so congresswoman, i'm just curious, you're a republican. you're a conservative. you would understand, would you not, even though paul krugman would say congress doesn't understand this, that maybe we could spend a little bit more in the short term if we took care of the long-term problems in medicare, medicaid, social security, defense spending, et

cetera, et cetera, et cetera, if we take care of the 20-year, 30-year debt bomb. >> the $99 trillion in debt. >> yeah. >> the outstanding liabilities that we have. >> unfunded liabilities. >> absolutely. i think it's important to remember, medicare and social security are trust funds. and governments have first right of refusal on the paycheck of workers. and this is an issue where you want to see stabilization. you want to see certainty. and right now it's not existing, and that's what is causing people to get antsy because now the social security trust fund is dipping into the general fund to meet their obligations. and so we've got to have that stabilization. >> when we talk about entitlements, we know social security's fine. actually, last year the social security trust fund was minus $47 billion. >> see, that's right. >> last year alone. >> that's right. >> $47 billion. >> that's right, joe. and that's why, if you read the report from the trustees, you know, you've got to get in here and say, let's look at stabilization.

now with the entitlements, medicare is the largest of those entitlements. of course, we're beginning to hear good ideas coming out of the states. and governor, you've probably heard this from so many people. a lot of governors are saying block grant it back to us. we can do a better job. federal government, get your hands off it. we can do a better job than you can. >> congresswoman, the problem with block granting, it's always been sort of a code for less money. if you block grant with the same amount of money, we'll do a better job. we won't ask for increases. but don't block -- >> even jerry brown is saying when it comes to medicaid, he wants a little more power. what you as governor want to have a block grant back to you, and you take control of it instead of washington on medicaid. >> no question. >> that's the question. >> waivers over and over again to do new and creative things slows down the process, there's no question. we were one of the first states to put in a way of handling

long-term care for asthmatics, diabetes, et cetera. we had to wait to get a waiver from washington. we should have been able to hit the ground running. >> cms waiver program in tennessee. look what it does. it blocks your legislature from being creative in finding solutions. and what our states, what our governors, are saying is, look, we have the ability to do a better job of finding solutions, in solving these problems on a long-term basis. >> don't you need some sort of baseline or foundation, national standard? so you have to guarantee that the states at least deliver a certain amount -- >> we can still do that. >> and a certain degree of improvisation. >> you could do that. >> of course, senator alexander from tennessee is saying give all of medicaid to the federal government and give all of education back to the states. and so i think our states are looking for innovative ways to solve some of these funding solutions. >> marsha, is your governor taking the additional medicaid funds? >> no. >> he's not. boy, that's a huge mistake.

>> i disagree. >> let me ask you about something paul krugman said. he said people have been saying for years that the crash is coming, the crash is coming. i've been saying it since 1994, i've been talking about the need to balance the budget. we balanced the budget four years in a row in the 1990s. i know you've been talking about it as well. but, you know, last night i was having a discussion with a friend via e-mail. he said, joe, nobody cares about the debt. and you know, you get outside the policymakers, sometimes, unfortunately, that seems to be the case. how do we make americans care about the debt -- >> as recently as three years ago. i would have agreed with that. today the debt is kitchen table conversation. >> right. >> i agree. >> so you think americans are starting to focus on it. >> absolutely. >> that's great. >> it is so interesting, when i will meet somebody and they will say, have you seen that debt clock? and moms.

businesswomen, women who are -- i think they're more concerned about the debt than anybody else because they look at this as being a way to cap and trade their children's future to the people that own that debt. they're very uncertain about it. >> what we're seeing is, this generation and even part of the last generation of women, they're now handling the checkbooks and the households. they're handling all the money. they're handling the finances, and they're tuned into obviously these types of things and worry about the country now on a holistic level. >> they're running companies. >> that's right. >> and the companies where they work, they are dealing with federal bureaucrats that drive them nultts. >> budgets. >> they're saying, wait a minute. you have got to do some things. government needs to run in a more businesslike manner. we need to get this debt under control. >> i think more women will help with that because they have that sensibility. so while we're on the topic of women in power, there's been a lot of discussion lately about not enough doors still being opened, certain doors and one of the final frontiers last week

happened with women in the military. >> right. >> here's what nick christoph writes about sheryl sandberg who is really taking a different point of view as to why this is happening. >> number two on facebook, right? >> exactly. i'd love to get your take on this. she mights -- he writes about her. "in america, only 17% of american fortune 500 board seats are held by women, a mere 3% of board chairs are women, and women are barely represented in president obama's cabinet. indeed, i'm guessing that the average boardroom doesn't have much better gender equality than a team of cave hunters attacking a woolly mammoth. so what gives? a provocative answer comes from sheryl sandberg the chief operating officer of facebook, the gender gap in chauvinism to corporate obstacles but also in part to pem who don't aggressively pursue opportunities. is sandberg blaming the victim? i don't think so. but i also don't want to relax

the pressure on employers to do a much better job of recruiting and promoting women." i talked with her from my book, "knowing your value," which addresses this, and you know, she says women don't raise their hand. they don't ask questions in great groups. there's tons of different ways that we don't step up and lean in, which i believe is the title of her book and get in there and stay in there. is that a fair argument, do you think? >> i think that there is a certain point in that there's a valid point. part of it is yes, women will lean in, they will push in, but then they don't like being excluded because maybe a male-dominated environment thinks that they're too pushy. >> right. >> and that they're trying to force their way into a situation, so they will back up. and in my career, i've seen that happen. you know, where i would push forward and then i would move back a little bit. but bear in mind, i was working, knocking on doors selling books door to door when i was 19 years old working my way through college, and i was the only female. >> right. right.

>> and then i started a women's division for that company. and i've worked in the political environment. i was a county party chairman, the only female, in 1989. so what you have to have, and whether it's the military or whether it's corporate america, you've got to have a critical mass of women who are helping to raise up other women and to open those doors kind of to gently push up and to challenge. >> xerox, ibm, the new head of yahoo!. it's changing. >> and they're successful in their ventures, and they'll pave the way. >> and these are women that lean in and are not afraid of what it looks like. >> they're not afraid of getting it done. >> exactly. congresswoman marsha blackburn, thank you so much. >> good to be with you. >> thank you, marsha. still ahead, putting the new in "new republic," the magazine that's been around since 1914 gets a face-lift. the magazine's publisher, chris hughes, and editor tfank, frank

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coming up next, invisible armies. the evolution of guerrilla warfare from prehistoric times to today. and what the age-old tactic means for the u.s. strategy in afghanistan. senior fellow on the council on foreign relations, matt spoot, joins us next.

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welcome back to "morning joe." you get a look at central park this morning. we usually have the democratic hour of power here on "morning joe." >> oh, my lord. >> one democrat after another, but this morning, mika, it is the council on foreign relations hour. >> yes, it is, cfr day. let's proclaim it. >> watch "morning joe." richard haass, look who's here! >> fantastic, he is the senior fellow of national security sudden study at the council on foreign relations. i almost got that job but he beat me out. >> i hate when that happens. >> i wonder how that happens. the market worked. >> the author of the new book," invisible armies," a history of guerrilla warfare from ancient

times to the present." this looks fascinating. >> why did you decide to write the book now? >> i spent the last decade writing about and covering the wars going on in iraq and afghanistan, and i got interested in trying to see the bigger historical picture. what was different? what was new? how to place in context the kind of wars that we've been engaged in in the past decade, and that's what took me on this six-year historical odyssey going back 5,000 years of history to truly see the big picture. >> i mean, this is the world in which we live now. i was shocked even back in 1991 when saddam hussein was stupid enough to march his tanks out in the open and allow us -- nobody's going to be stupid enough to take us on in a european style tank war. >> right. except that the military keeps hoping. they want to prepare for a conventional war because they don't want to do the other kind. they keep hoping that somebody will stick a big tank army out there in the desert with a big hit me sign on it so we can wipe them out. >> that guy actually was hanged in iraq, and it's not going to

happen. >> it's not a smart strategy. >> that's why he's no longer with us. what did you learn from this book? what's the big idea that you want everybody in the pentagon to know about what you learned? >> well, there's a bunch, but the biggest one is simply how ubiquitous an old-old guerrilla warfare actually is. this is not something new. this is not a passing fad. this is not something that's going to go away when we leave afghanistan. >> give us historical context. what was the first example of guerrilla warfare? >> glad you asked because the first guerrilla wars are as old as man did kind. tribal warfare is essentially guerrilla warfare. tribes don't have uniforms. they fight with ambush-type tactics. this type of warfare has been going on as long as we've been on this earth. conventional warfare is a relatively recent and relatively rare invention. and here's a good question for you, joe. what was the last conventional war the world has seen? it's a hard one to get.

i had to look this up. the last conventional war was in 2008 when georgia was invaded by russia. it lasted a few weeks. so there have been almost no conventional wars around the world, and yet thousands of people are dying in places like afghanistan, syria, libya, somalia, mali, algeria, all of these places in wars without front lines, without uniforms, without conventional militaries. those are the kind of conflicts i write about. and the big message is, there's nothing new about this. we should be used to it by now because this is the way it's always been. >> max, you said the french go into mali, they're going to build up to 2,500 troops. the united states is going to have to deal with these things. how well situated are modern democracies to fight guerrilla -- to fight these wars? >> well, modern democracies face certain handicaps because of the growing power of the media and of democracy. and so if a war becomes unpopular at home, it's hard to sustain abroad. that wasn't something the roman empire had to worry about.

it's something that modern france and the united states have to worry about. so my biggest concern about the french in mali is are they going to have the staying power? because sending a few hundred or a few thousand troops into mali and pushing back some of the militants for a few weeks is fine. but they're going to come back. and the reality is, one of the points in the new book is that the average insurgency since 1945 has lasted almost ten years. so you better be ready for the long haul. and if you're not, you're not going to win. >> max, what does your research us about afghanistan? >> i don't have a crystal ball, and i think there are reasons for concerns. i think we have made progress. again, back to richard's point, the question is are we going to have staying power? if we have something like 20,000 troops serving as advisers and as special operations forces after 2014, i think there's a reasonable chance of a decent outcome defined as a self-sustaining afghanistan. but if we're going to pull

almost all of our troops out or all of our troops, then i think that the danger of civil war goes up, the danger afghan security forces collapsing, it goes up. so you'd better be ready for the long haul. >> you think ten years is a long haul enough? >> unfortunately in this kind of conflict, it may not be because the other side has sanctuaries in pakistan, and that's often been the biggest determiner of success or failures. >> the book is "vinvisible armies," max boot, great to have you. >> we'll switch jobs for a week like "freaky friday." >> you can write the next 700-page book. i'd be happy to have that off my plate. >> i'm sure you'll make deadline. up next, liverpool loses to oldham? is that possible? does that happen? what's going on here? >> don't even ask. mojo football frenzy is next with roger bennett. and also more talk about paul krugman.

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first half substitute. and it's beyond belief! two of the oldest youngsters combining. they really are in dreamland.

>> i just went on twitter. it's oldham. >> steve rattner weighs in on the paul krugman debate. he says you're exactly right, we are putting millions of tons of carbon in the air every day but we're adding billions to our future entitlement obligations. we're stealing from our children to pay more in benefits to seniors and people like me who -- anyway -- >> well, we're trending on twitter. >> you're exactly right. the budget deficit is not number five or six of our problems, it is number two after jobs. steve rattner, thank you very much. roger! >> what does steve rattner think about the f.a. cup, joe? >> steve rattner is probably with me. he's probably concerned about liverpool. oldham, they're like number 19 in the third division. they're horrible. >> this is the f.a. cup, the vast national trophy which pits the minor leagues against the major leagues.

a lesson about towns. oldham is the double a equivalent. within two minutes they took the lead. this is matt smith. it got worse. comedy central goalkeeping. >> what in the world? they look like clowns! and reese heads back a goal to find the top corner. >> oh, my, oh, my! >> two goals back. this is like "cool runnings" around the bobsleds. these people haven't been so happy, well, since world war i ended, joe. >> this is just brutal. were they for the nazis in world war ii? they could have been, they could have been if they're from your part of the country. >> it's horrible for liverpool,

too. it's a club that i follow, that you root against every week. >> a bit like the red sox, there's a big question of what direction they're going. >> what a gratti town? >> it's anywhere apart from london, pretty well. >> there are other shocks this weekend. chelsea almost got humiliated. >> championships of europe, f.a. cup holders, part of brentford. i think americans thought it was named after brent musburger. they were really gratti and they will have to play. the spurs also lost. they lost the lead of the first division in a really remarkable game. this doesn't happen in real life. this is the equivalent of ross getting rachel in "friends."

running after that ball like a car chase in "the french connection." that's american brad friedlan, he had no chance of stopping that. you should have more tournaments like this in america. >> the minor leaguers get to play the best. of course, there's leeds, the team i'm pulling for. they used to be one of the best in europe and they've collapsed. >> fallen icons. >> do you have any question, mika? >> no, i'm good. >> the usa getting back into action, world cup qualifiers start next week. i'm off to honduras. you should come with me. >> okay. >> liverpool, joe jan is the man. we're dead serious, aren't we?

>> the red sox needs to seasoned a permanent representative and assures them they're serious. >> she's where she wants to be in dallas. joe jan has been a liverpool fan, he is a savant about soccer, he understands it. they need him there now. >> or tito's free. >> they don't need tito. >> tito's from cleveland. >> roger and i are going to hondur honduras. is that okay? >> you guys have fun. she's on roids, she might rip the seat out. >> and help us keep our conversations online. tweet us with your thoughts @morning mika o or @joebc. and coming this week, somebody

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siemens. answers. >> i understand, mr. president, this was your idea. why did you want to do this together, a joint interview? >> well, the main thing is i

just wanted to have a chance to publicly say thank you because i think hillary will go down as one of the finest secretaries of state we've had. it's been a fine collaboration over the last four years. >> there's no collaboration tea here? >> we don't have any tea here. there's some water here. this has been the most extraordinary honor. >> good morning, it's 8 a.m. on the east coast, 5:00 a.m. on the west coast. back us on set we have ed rendell, richard haass, andrea mitchell. >> i don't know that president obama has gone 60 minutes with anybody.

>> president obama sat alongside hillary clinton, a one-time political rival who he now skies as one of his closest political advisers. you would think you're on steroids, not me. >> is he juicing? >> we don't need to hear about your rashes. let's just go ahead and play the clip. go! >> i have to ask you, what's the date of the expiration on this endorsement? >> oh, steve, i know -- >> i have to ask that question. come on. you're sitting here together. everybody in town is talking about it already and this is taking place. >> you know, steve, i got to tell you, you guys in the press are incorrigible. i was literally inaugurated four days ago and you're talking about elections four years from now. >> and i am, as you know, steve,

i am still secretary of state and i'm out of politics and forbidden from even hearing these questions. >> boy, you know, they have, if we ever decide to leave this hallowed ground, i think they have the chemistry together to maybe host "morning joe." >> much the same chemistry. look at that. >> come on, mika. that's forced. >> that was forced and that's what i was sort of uncomfortable with. it's sort of obvious. i like them both very much but is he doing this with everyone else? >> i mean, bing crosby and bob hope, i mean, come on! stellar -- >> closer to maris and mantle. >> what's going on? >> they didn't break any new foreign policy ground, that was clear. so you're left to wonder what was going on there. >> she's getting tried run for

president. >> though it was remarkable to see the two of them sitting together if you thought of where we were five years ago and them saying shame on you and -- >> andrea mitchell, am i being too cynical this morning because these are two people i respect a great deal. >> a great deal. >> well, it was sort of -- as you're pointing out, it was really unusual to see them together and to see the relationship they have developed. i think they have developed a close relationship. i was really intrigued when steve kroft asked what about the staffs and they acknowledged it took longer than the staffs to get over the hurts over the 2008 and i would say even longer, hasn't happened. she has been the most celebrated secretary of state and most high profile member of the cabinet and gets along very well with the president, but arguably she never really broke through the barrier of that national security staff and the white

house staff, the political advisers. and then when he asked about the spouses, the acknowledgement that it took their spouses a lot longer to heal as well. >> what was that about? >> it's hard to figure. >> and biden. biden's going out and -- >> killing it. >> week in, week out joe biden is going out and making the deals that have got to be done. he's the mvp of the past six months. this is really sticking it to a guy who has been saying since 2009 he wants to run for president. >> if this was at the end of the administration, maybe it makes sense but the president is going to need joe biden and need him full out for the next four years. >> so what's going on? you love hillary, you love joe. we all do. this doesn't make sense. >> i any down the road -- first of all, i do think there's something about just saying, look, this was a great collaboration, we want to put an exclamation point on a great

collaboration, team of rivals. hillary is more popular than the president right now the president may have had more to gain than hillary did. number two, i think the president down the road could be the peacemaker, the person who comes in and says to joe, joe, you can't stand in the way of history. look, i love joe biden, i think he's earned a shot at it but if hillary clinton wants to run, how do you stand in the way of history? >> yeah. >> um, okay. on foreign policy, just wondering if there's any major news break broken? i didn't think so. making sure i didn't miss anything. it would have covered up the awkward fact that they're setting her up for a presidential run if they broke some news. >> steve kroft asked about benghazi but i'm not sure we got any new information. >> the president defending himself from critics who say the u.s. has not been aggressive enough in using american power abroad. >> well, moammar gadhafi

probably does not agree with that assessment, or at least if thiev he was around he wouldn't agree. if it were not for egypt, you might have seen a different outcome there. we do nobody a service when we leap before we look. syria is a classic example of where our involvement, we want to make sure that not only does it enhance u.s. security but also that it is doing right by the people of syria and neighbors like israel that are going to be profoundly affected by it. and so it's true sometimes that we don't just shoot from the hip. >> so, richard haass, is this payback for, let's say, bill clinton doing such a great job for the obama campaign? people are still going back and saying the most important speech of that campaign was the one given by bill clinton. without question that was the

turning point for the -- i mean, i say turning point. those guys were pounding republicans with their targeting from the very beginning, but that was really when america just i think turned. bill clinton captured the moment and defended the presidency. >> well, it's clear that bill clinton's support for the president helped his reelection both at the convention and beyond the convention. you're asking me to speculate on something i simply don't know anything about. >> well, that's what we do here. >> sorry. >> how long you have been coming here? >> with the secretary of state leaving office, the president does a joint interview -- >> i've never seen it before. the secretary of state is leaving thursday. she's giving her final speech on thursday, a chance for her to talk about the foreign policy of the obama presidency. >> dreandrea. >> we want to get to andrea in just a second. you want to look at the pictures of barack obama, first

african-american president, still if you said ten years ago this was going to happen, it would still be shocking. you have hillary clinton sitting next to him. odds on favorite to be the first female president. you look at those two figures, you look at their approval ratings. barack obama, his likability is in the 7 0s, hillary clinton's approval ratings in the 60s and you look where i was this weekend, the "national review" had a great weekend where they were talking about the future of conservatism. i say it was great because it was so constructive but i tell you what, if the economy keeps getting better over the next three years, you got hillary clinton running three years from now, we -- i say we, we republicans -- have such a major headwind in our face for the next three years. it's going to be tough. >> so many variables could happen in the next three years. >> a couple of other points about the politics of it. joe biden is going to be at the

white house and has had a very high profile role but clearly this is not the interview that he would have wanted to see. when you talk to a lot of leading democrats who are in town this weekend, they were saying that joe biden has everything going for him except hillary clinton is a woman and is a celebrity and has the best popularity and she has the virtue after eight years then of barack obama and the obama administration of being seen as somewhat of an outsider. so it's a better way to go up against a republican, you know, after eight years of the obama administration is to have the first woman. that's the logical event, that she basically would clear the field, even among the great friends and admirers of joe biden, who has been i think the most effective vice president we've seen. the other small foreign policy but not so small is the president was saying ask moammar gadhafi and we wouldn't have what we have now in egypt if we hadn't moved in when we did

against mubarak. look at the streets of egypt today. egypt is hardly a success story they should be pointing to. >> we're in about the first or second inning of what's going on in the middle east. in literally could be decades of turbulence. we've seen the relationship between libya and mali in europe. i think we have civil war in syria, unrest in jordan and bahrain, who knows if saudi arabia will be able to last a moment, what we used to call a peace process has totally stopped. i think the administration has to be wary and just careful about pointing to the middle east. yes, consequence things are happening there, history is in the making. we don't know at the end of the day if things are going to be better or worse. i would make the argument things are objectively worse. it's not to blame the administration. large forces are under way. it's hard to argue things are

better or worse. >> another page is turning, sarah palin and fox news are parting way. the former vice presidential candidate last appeared on the network november 19th and will no longer be a paid contributor. the "national journal" takes a look at her tenure in a piece which reads in part, "once the face of an energetic and politically potent tea party movement, palin is leaving fox at a time when polls show the tea party a at an all-time low in both -- the problem for republicans is that democrats

nominated and elected a black president twice now while they are still trying to fight perceptions they are hostile to minorities and the policies they support. that makes comments like palin's particularly hostile. >> first of all, on that comment it is deeply offensive. democrats did the same thing in 2008. i believe andrew kwcuomo may ha said the same thing in 2008 and he -- >> got a pass. >> yeah, he was not hammered as much. >> he got hammered for that? i read that someone got a pass for it. >> some have gotten a pass. i think cuomo got hammered pretty hard. but this is, i saw richard haass, mr. i'm not going to speculate on anything that's not in front of my nose, you know, this is important. this is an important story because the guy who has been the de facto leader of the republicans party over the past four years since george w. bush

left town is roger elles. i talked about what happened this weekend at the national review institute's talk. i was really surprised by what i heard. and heartened, whether it was bill crystal or john tourettes. and also scott walker was doing really well. i'll show you the polls of how well scott is doing in wisconsin. all republicans, saying we have to stop being the stupid party. what we've been saying for six months. john i thought had one of the best points, that we have stifled debate. the conservative movement has stifled debate and if you go out and you dare to stand out in a crowd, whether it's on taxes or

regulations or in the past on immigration, you were completely shunned from the party. finally there's an understanding we've got to grow the party. what we've been saying quite frankly for years and getting attacked. we want colin powell on our side. we want moderate republicans on our side. if we're going to be the majority party again, we've got to expand that party. >> are you saying that pushing her out of the spotlight is part of making the stupid party less stupid? >> what i'm saying is that sarah palin represented a time and place in american politics and now 2008 so much as 2010. and that time is passing us very quickly. >> and when we come back, the new "new republic", the magazine that has been around since 1914 kicks off its relaunch interview with a wide-ranging interview with president obama. facebook co-founder turned magazine publisher chris hughes joining us along the editor

frank foer. and we look at the israeli-palestinian conflict through the counterintelligent agency. we'll talk to the director of the film that got a lot of attention at the film festival. bill? >> very busy weather week. we're starting with snow, sleet, rain moving through northeast. it's snowing in philadelphia, d.c. has turned over to rain. maryland reporting a lot of icing conditions. the entire state of pennsylvania was really covered in snow and then ice overnight. expect a quick inch of snow from new york city to boston to manchester and albany and then you'll get sleet and freezing rain. the roads could be slick for a majority of the day. temperatures are still in the 20s in boston so it very cold there. starting to head up near freezing in new york and

philadelphia. what's next? in the midwest it is 60 degrees right now in st. louis. it going to be 76 in dallas. we have a spring-like setup with a lot of cold air that's going to come in behind it. we are going to see severe weather as we go into tuesday and wednesday, full out severe weather like we'd see in march. we have a line of storms, potential of tornadoes, it will start tuesday afternoon and evening from oklahoma city to dallas, to arkansas, louisiana and missouri. as we go into tuesday night and wednesday, it heads through the deep south. so everyone from texas to florida up to the carolinas, severe weather heading your way, maybe damaging winds and the possibility of tornadoes. i should be talking about winter storms this time of year, not this junk but we'll deal with it this week. washington, d.c. didn't see much snow. watch out for the freezing rain just north of the city. you're watching "morning joe" by

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this past monday millions of americans watched as barack obama took the oath of office for a second term as president of the united states of america. and this coming monday, the party really starts! >> hey, everybody, it's me, your vp joe biden and i'm inviting you all to join me this monday at the dover speedway for a little party i like to call the biden bash. we're going to have cotton candy. i've got neil diamond

impersonator of the year. ♪ taking it slow >> but not too slow. >> all right. with us now with the two men behind the relaunch of the "new republic," chris hughes and the magazine's editor, just a mean, hateful man who comes here spewing vile about liverpool. >> 3-2. 3-2! >> the magazine's new issue. >> oldham. >> whatever. it features a wide ranging interview with president obama that's made a lot of news, man. chris, you know how to launch it, don't you, baby. that is good stuff. tell me what you're most surprised about what the president told you. >> for me personally it's just the tone. it's a brand new obama.

i asked him about a new kind of politics and his answer was that institutional and form in the media have made it very difficult to deliver on that sort of grand promise four years -- >> isn't that ironic, democrats come in and i think they get a much freer pass to the white house than republicans but it always seems to be the democrats, the clintons and now barack obama that has this terrible relationship with the media. >> well, i mean -- is that fair? >> i think the media environment we live in in 2013 is different than it was ten years ago. we've all seen the demise of the night live news, people just follow the people that are in their corner on twitter. there is a different media environment. at the same time there were very high expectations in 2008. it's their responsibility to try to deliver them. >> hope, change, dead, fair? >> you were talking in your last

segment about the "60 minutes" interview and said they didn't make a lot of news about foreign policy. we asked him about syria and how he was wrestling with the morality of what's happening in syria. and he said essentially there's a lot of bad stuff that happens in the world and the united states can't go around fixing it all. and to me when i read that answer, he was essentially saying the united states is not going to intervene in syria on humanitarian grounds and also that there's not likely to be another humanitarian intervention in this administration. >> by the way, that's a huge change of our foreign policy over the past 20 years, not only the bush administration but the clinton administration. >> even he wrung his hands over what was happening in darfur. >> maybe the pick of haggel at dod makes perfect sense where we're having realists running our foreign policy.

>> that's my take. >> that would be a pretty good development in my opinion. so the president says, it's interesting, chris, that gun control advocates need to do a little morris will more listen. . >> it was clear he wanted to have a little more conversation in the country where each side is talking to the other side. he feels viscerally there is a divide between liberals who live in more liberal areas and conservatives in more rural areas and when it comes to the question of guns, they're not talking to one another. the question is what can the vags administration do to initiate that conversation? >> i have to say very little. i say listen, i'm with you on heller, americans have a right to have handguns in their home, a a right to have shotguns. i'm mad that you can't carry in new york city. bloomberg i think is way out

there -- >> are you packing right now? >> i wish i could! if it weren't for bloomberg. my point is if a guy like me is with them 95% of the time that says, hey, listen, the survivalists -- we're going to have to separate from the survivalist, they ever don't need assault weapons to protect from the black helicopters and if suddenly it's all black and white and i'm evil, how does the president have a conversation with the survivalist wing of the nra in. >> that's the point. you look at gun control and budgetary issues, the president's strategy is to fight with the interest groups, fight with the mainstream of the republican party and to try to ply away maybe some faction of the center right or the people heviews as the reasonable republicans and conservatives and make it politically unpalatable with them to continue to hang out with the nra. >> you can say the survivalist

wing of the nra. >> that's very important. there are millions out there that believe in what the nra believe in on a lot of issues but not on high capacity magazines, not on assault weapons. >> that's one of the big questions of this whole second term is how much obama can use the office of the presidency to really take what i think is a center, common sense position on gun control, immigration, any of these issues and really push through legislation in congress. i think it's clear from this interview he views that as his role, to use the power of the presidency and rhetoric do that. my question is how. how does that leadership happen -- >> well, he has two choices i think. one is the choice of making it all political and as joe says, pick off just enough to get there. the other choice is to lead and to forge compromises. i would say guns is an area where it's not that tough. most americans agree that we should have 100% background checks, 74% of the nra, right?

secondly, most americans believe there's no place for high capacity magazines. most americans do not believe there should be a full-out assault weapons ban. most believe we should do something to tighten the mental health system. there are really grounds to forge a good compromise. >> would you say he's leading on gun control? i would say he's leading on gun control. he's staked out a position. he hasn't prenegotiated with himself about what the outcome is going to be. he's pushing to get the strongest position. in the end i assume he will -- >> look at these number while you're talking. 58% of americans support assault weapons ban, 39% oppose. these numbers are breaking the president's way. let's talk about leading for a second. we've been critical here and we're not alone. democratic senators have been critical as well. this president doesn't reach out. they try to say they do.

did you guys get any sense that the second term is going to be any different, that this president -- he's not going to be warm and fuzzy but that he's going to reach out more -- >> we asked him if there are a few republicans he's been able to forge a relationship with? the answer was generally the leadership but they're more moderate than their party and that puts them in a corner. there are people he feels he he can make a deal with butt radical right wing is too strong and is holding the more moderate parts of the party. >> he had a diagnosis and it was a medical diagnosis. he said that the republican party was suffering from a fever. his prediction during the campaign that was his election would break the fever. now he said in our interview obviously that wasn't the case. he thought that by losing, there

would be a changed republican calculus. he has a diagnosis of the way in a republicans behave, which is that any time they deviate from heterodoxy they'll get punished by fox news and rush limbaugh and he believes that makes it virtually impossible for them to compromise. >> he's never been around republicans. he doesn't understand that, yes, they may be very conservative on some issues but you can deal with them on others. it's one of the frustrating things. i found him -- we've spent some time with him one-on-one. he's a very likable guy. he's got all the tools required to schmooze and work the -- a congressman is an easy take. >> talking from experience. >> the white house, that's the greatest home field advantage in the world and it's frustrating he doesn't seem like he wants to use it. >> i think, guys, the context

there is there for compromise. immigration. the republicans clearly want to get a bill passed. guns, i think there's an opportunity to get something passed. energy. everyone knows we need an american independence strategy. there's three issues right there off the top that you can forge that compromise. >> i would look at it in terms of -- i think that there is that potential and i think he views that potential but he also i think has a revised negotiating strategy based on what he perceives to be the lessons of the first term. so he's starting off staking out strident positions and playing the tough guy in order to try to scare them to move first. and i think he thinks that in the last term he moved first, they didn't move towards him and that he made a tactical mistake. >> that's been borne out now with the first round of this fiscal debate, which, you know, i think for the most part the administration won. the question is how much are those questions going to cloud all of these other priorities? the expectations they're setting over there are incredibly high,

guns, immigration, climate change. of course we have these ongoing fiscal issues, which are not going to go away. i mean, it's going to be a long road. >> it is going to be a long road. it's been a long road since 1914. the "new republic," they are back, though, and better than ever! >> thanks. >> congratulations, guys. this looks fantastic. and frank, welcome back, my man. it's great to have you come back and talk about real football sometime when you're a little nicer. >> oldham 3, liverpool 2. >> so you're a dempsey man now? >> love him. >> i have another north london team that has my heart, even though they're pathetic. >> not as bad as liverpool. >> they're pretty bad, though. >> are we going over to watch a match? >> let's do it! >> we've done it before. i almost doesn't get out of barcelona with my passport.

it was ugly. >> joey, jr. lost his phone. >> chris, thank you. frank, thank you as well. when we come back, the author of "the gatekeepers." back in a moment on "morning joe." ♪ when the walls come tumbling down ♪ so glad we've almost made it marie callender's turkey breast with stuffing is a great reason to slow down. creamy mash potatoes, homestyle gravy and 320 calories. marie callender's. it's time to savor. and 320 calories. is bigger than we think ... sometimelike the flu.fer from with aches, fever and chills- the flu's a really big deal. so why treat it like it's a little cold? there's something that works differently

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that was a scene from the oscar nominated documentary "the

gatekeepers." joining us, the film's director dror moreh. this looks fascinating. set the scene for our viewers and the characters that it's based around. >> it's the first time that six former heads are speaking openly of the conflict in the middle east between the israeli and palestinians from 1967 to today. >> what are their revelations that are so surprising? >> you learn a loft of things. you learn how this has been conduct, how much they sacrifice to maintain the security of israel. first and foremost you learn that the leadership of israel did not really want to strive for peace or really, really move towards peace as they should. and this is the most disturbing evidence that come from that

movie. >> all six of these leaders of israel's secret service now, according to you and the movie, suggest they want to be more conciliatory towards the palestinians and they believe that'ses only way to secure israel's long-term national security. >> absolutely. much more than that i think that the main theme in the movie is what is strategy towards tactics. and i think that they basically are complaining that israel moved forward mostly tactically and not sftrategically, meaning to say they wouldn't see the outcome of the conflict and how we solve the conflict. they come from the center of defense of the establishment of israel, it's for the benefit of israel to solve the con police headquarters -- conflict and they should do anything to solve the conflict and basically are agreeing with obama completely.

>> we start from a standpoint of a jewish american. i don't think israel can go on for the next hundred years being an armed camp. eventually either economically or militarily that's not going to work. >> absolutely. and what is the forecast for the israeli youngsters that are now in israel. what do you promise them? another hundred years of war? israel has to do that strategically. she has to move towards peace in every power that she can. the israeli leadership, the current one, doesn't seem to want that or to move towards that. >> dror, explain the psychological make-up of the six men who ran the israeli secret service, who was responsible for hunting down and killing palestinians that were terrorists. what -- what is it about them that makes them all -- one of them said, quote, i think after

retiring from this job you become a bit of a leftist. that's surprising. what is it about their makeup and their lives and experience that turned all six of these men into a, quote, leftist? >> i think if there is something common to all of them it is the fact that they are pragmatists. they know power can lead you to a certain point and beyond that you need to find other solutions. if there is something that they understand basically is is that they worked very hard to maintain the security of israel and they've reached a point where they say enough. >> do they think they can -- and this is not a hostile question, i'm curious what they think about dealing with hamas, who still is saying that israel must be destroyed and different into the sea. >> at the end of the day they say you have to speak. you have to speak with everybody that is willing to speak. while you're speaking, you're not shooting. this is something that comes from hollywood. it comes from another way in hollywood but when you're

speaking, you're not shooting. so if if there is something who is willing to speak to you, you speak. if i find out you don't eat glass and i don't drink petro, you have something in common and you speak. my father's house is six kilometers from ramallah. it's easier for me to come to los angeles to the oscars than to go to ramallah because i'm not allowed as an israeli citizen to go there. it's think when you're dealing with the human context, they could have solid the problems themselves much easier than the leaders. palestinian have never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity. >> let me just say he'd rather go, mika, rather to ramallah than the oscar ceremonies.

they're dreadful. congratulations. >> thank you very much. >> thank you so much. >> fascinating. >> coming up next, business headlines with brian sullivan. ♪ [ construction sounds ] ♪ [ watch ticking ] [ engine revs ] come in. ♪ got the coffee. that was fast. we're outta here. ♪

[ engine revs ] ♪

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and i helped create the fidelity guided portfolio summary. it's one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account. a live look at new york city, 46 past the hour. dreary day in new york. time now for business before the bell with cnbc's brian sullivan. a big open for the markets today. >> january just keeps on rocking. the futures indicating another higher day for the u.s. stock market. i mean, we have been soaring this year. i know after the debacle of the last decade or so a lot of people have kind of let the stock market go. they said forget about it, it's a rigged game, it's a losers

game. if you've been out of the market the last couple of years, you sure have missed a run. the dow jones industrial average continues to power higher. we are on pace for our best january since 1989, one of the predictions i made about a month and a half ago was that we would hit all-time highs this year at some point. we'll see if that holds true. you've got a recovering economy, recovering housing market and a very accommodative fed. in sadder news, mika, you have a book out and you're a big reader, it's getting harder to per use those book stores. barnes & noble saying they're going to close about a third of their stores over the next decade. a little bit sad. i like to peruse the aisles. >> i agree. it's sad. it's a sign of the time. it's a touch of reality, though. things are changing. it's a sign of the times. >> you can sit at home, hit "by

now" on your ipad. you miss the social aspect of it, too. >> and the tangible aspect of holding a book and having it on your book shelf. up next, the best of "saturday night live." i'm jennifer hudson.

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xx >> everyone calm down. especially sandberg calm down. i'm not taking my shirt off. >> jerry seinfeld, wow! >> hello, adam. >> wait, wait a minute. you want to help me host? >> that's right, adam. i should be your coach. i get you. appealing, not as jewish as your name. i know that racket inside and out. i spent nine years on this network threading that needle. when it comes to your comedy, be smart, be clever being be one step ahead of the audience.

that's where you use your jewishness. whatever you do, don't take your shirt off. >> thank you. thank you. that is -- that's great advice, great advice, jerry, thank you. >> did you -- did you see that girl beyonce? >> excuse me? >> that girl, beyonce. did you see her out there? because i was like, what? >> beyonce, yes, sir, she's a very beautiful woman. >> beautiful? raquel welch was beautiful. beyonce is like damn! i had to keep pinching myself. i thought i was having another one of my famous dreams. >> dr. king, she was there to sing our national anthem. >> it said she was lip siyncing and i was like and i care why?

>> can we please discuss more importanti issues? there are very important issues facing this nation. >> speaking of change, what's up with michelle's bangs? >> i'm sorry? >> her bangs! is she guest starring on "the new girl"? ♪ ♪ here's looking at your business travel forecast. travel delays are expected in some cases, especially in the great lakes and northeast, we're going to watch this wintry mess heading into the region. most areas starting as snow and freezing rain and rain later on today, the roads through pennsylvania, new jersey and southern new england very difficult later on today.

safe driving and safe travels. mr from a mile away... while going shoeless and metal-free in seconds. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle...and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. now this...will work. [ male announcer ] just like you, business pro. just like you. go national. go like a pro.

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